If television were the prime cause of illiteracy, then the remedy would be simple: Turn it off.


Annotated Bibliography: anticipatory systems/anticipation (Part 2).

Continued from the Annotated Bibliography, Part 1

Continued from the Annotated Bibliography, Part 1
Ploghaus, A., et al., 1999. Dissociating pain from its anticipation in the human brain. Science, 284 (542), 1979–1981.
The experience of pain is subjectively different from the fear and anxiety caused by threats of pain. Functional magnetic resonance imaging in healthy humans was applied to dissociate neural activation patterns associated with acute pain and its anticipation. Expectation of pain activated sites within the medial frontal lobe, insular cortex, and cerebellum distinct from, but close to, locations mediating pain experience itself. Anticipation of pain can in its own right cause mood changes and behavioural adaptations that exacerbate the suffering experienced by chronic pain patients. Selective manipulations of activity at these sites may offer therapeutic possibilities for treating chronic pain.
Robertson, S., Myerson, J. and Hale, S., 2006. Are there age differences in intraindividual variability in working memory performance? The journals of gerontology series B: psychological sciences and social sciences, 61, 8–24.
It has been suggested, primarily based on response time data, that there is an age-related increase in intraindividual variability. This corresponds to variations in anticipation. To determine whether older adults show more intraindividual variability in working memory performance, the researchers had younger and older adults perform three verbal memory performance tasks of varying complexity, as well as a same-different judgment response time task. The findings fail to support theories of frontal lobe ageing that predict greater moment-to-moment fluctuations in the performance of older adults. In other words, anticipation expression does not seem to be affected.
Rousseau, A.S., et al., 2005. Physical activity alters antioxidant status in exercising elderly subjects. The journal of nutritional biochemistry, 17 (7), 463–470.
Nutritional adequacy and physical activity are two aspects of a health-promoting lifestyle. Not much is known about antioxidant nutrient requirements for exercising elderly (EE) subjects. The question of whether exercise training alters the status of antioxidant vitamins, as well as trace elements, in elderly subjects and fails to balance the age-related increase in oxidative stress is addressed in this study. Despite high intakes of antioxidant micronutrients, no adaptive mechanism to enhance anticipation (able to counteract the increased oxidative stress in ageing) was found in exercising subjects.
Shammi, P.E. and Bosman, S.D., 1998. Aging and variability in performance aging. Aging, neuropsychology, and cognition, 5 (1), 1–13.
Human performance being anticipation driven, this study is informative in respect to conceptual issues regarding the definition of variability. The researchers investigated agerelated differences in variability of performance. The following types of variability were defined: (1) diversity of the group or between-participant variability, which indicates the spread of participants within each group; (2) dispersion or within-participant variability, which indicates the spread of each participant’s score; and (3) consistency of performance within and across test sessions, which indicates the stability of performance over time. It was hypothesised that the performance of elderly participants would generally be more variable. To assess the impact of task factors upon age-related differences in variability, several tasks varying in their psychomotor and cognitive demands were employed. The tasks used were choice reaction time, finger tapping, and time estimation. The results indicated that variability is not a unitary phenomenon and that an age-related increase in variability is not observed for all tasks. Age-related differences in variability were observed for tasks where there were no age-related differences in overall performance. Whether or not age-related increases in variability were observed depended upon how variability was measured and upon task characteristics. Increased cognitive and motoric demands were associated with age-related increases in variability.
Small, D.M., et al., 2001. Changes in brain activity related to eating chocolate: from pleasure to aversion. Brain, 124 (9), 1720–1733.
The study dealt with issues of anticipation as they relate to reward and punishment. PET scans were done on volunteers as they ate chocolate to beyond satiety. Thus, the sensory stimulus and act (eating) were held constant while the reward value of the chocolate and motivation of the subject to eat were manipulated by feeding. Non-specific effects of satiety (such as feelings of fullness and autonomic changes) were also present and probably contributed to the modulation of brain activity. After eating each piece of chocolate, subjects gave ratings of how pleasant/unpleasant the chocolate was and of how much they did or did not want another piece of chocolate. Regional cerebral blood flow was then regressed against subjects’ ratings. This pattern of activity indicates that there may be a functional segregation of the neural representation of reward and punishment within this region. The only brain region that was active during both positive and negative, compared with neutral, conditions was the posterior cingulate cortex. Therefore, these results support the hypothesis that there are two separate motivational systems: one orchestrating approach and another avoidance behaviours.
Tsai, W.Y., Heiman, G.A. and Hodge, S.E., 2005. New simple tests for age-at-onset anticipation: application to panic disorder. Genetic epidemiology, 28 (3), 256–260.
Recently, testing for anticipation has received renewed interest. It is well known that standard statistical methods are inappropriate for this purpose due to problems of sampling bias. Few statistical tests have been proposed for comparing mean age-of-onset in affected parents with mean age-of-onset in affected children. All of them are difficult to compute and lack software to perform the tests. The authors illustrate the approaches taken in measuring anticipation with an example of panic disorder.
Wagner, U., et al., 2004. Sleep inspires insight. Nature, 427 (6972), 352–355.
Insight denotes a mental restructuring that leads to a sudden gain of explicit knowledge allowing qualitatively changed behaviour. Anecdotal reports on scientific discovery suggest that pivotal insights can be gained through sleep. The relevance of this research to anticipation is in respect to the activity of the mind (cf. Nadin, Mind-Anticipation and Chaos).
Waugh, C.E., et al., 2008. The neural correlates of trait resilience when anticipating and recovering from threat. Social cognitive and affective neuroscience, 3 (4), 322–332.
A facet of emotional resilience critical for adapting to adversity is flexible use of emotional resources. The authors hypothesised that in threatening situations this emotional flexibility enables resilient people to use emotional resources during appropriatelyemotional events, and conserve emotional resources during innocuous events. They tested this hypothesis using functional magnetic resonance imaging in a repeated recovery fromthreat task with low- and high-trait resilient individuals. Results show that when under threat, low-resilient individuals exhibited prolonged activation in the anterior insula to both the aversive and neutral pictures, whereas high-resilient individuals exhibited insula activation only to the aversive pictures. These data provide neural evidence that in threatening situations, resilient people flexibly and appropriately adjust the level of emotional resources needed to meet the demands of the situation. This is an expression of their anticipatory performance.
Wilson, R.S., et al., 2002. Individual differences in rates of change in cognitive abilities of older persons. Psychology and aging, (2), 179–193.
The broad issue is that of the dynamics of anticipation (change in time as individuals age). The authors examined change in cognitive abilities in older Catholic clergy members. For up to 6 years, participants underwent annual clinical evaluations, which included a battery of tests from which summary measures of seven abilities were derived. On average, decline occurred in each ability, and was more rapid in older persons than in younger persons. However, wide individual differences were evident at all ages. Rate of change in a given domain was not strongly related to baseline level of function in that domain but was moderately associated with rates of change in other cognitive domains. The results suggest that change in cognitive function in old age primarily reflects person-specific factors rather than an inevitable developmental process.
5. Anticipation and creativity
DeStefano, R.A., 1998. The principles of animation. Available from: http://www.evl.uic. edu/ralph/508S99/contents.html
Following 12 basic principles of animation introduced by the Disney animatorsOllie Johnston and Frank Thomas (1981), DeStefano provides new tools corresponding to the age of computer-generated animation. Anticipation is used to prepare the audience for an action, and to make the action appearmore realistic. A dancer jumping off the floor has to bend his knees first; a golfer making a swing has to swing the club back first. The technique can also be used for less physical actions, such as a character looking off-screen to anticipate someone’s arrival, or attention focusing on an object that a character is about to pick up.
Grammer, K., et al., 1996. Faces, bodies and Darwinian aesthetics. The beauty of boundaries and the boundaries of beauty. Evolutionary psychology of beauty. Available from: http://www.hbes.com/HBES/articles.htm
These pages review the current research situation in beauty research and make some suggestions for future research directions. The pages are purely experimental. So do not expect something completely perfect. The following presentation is based on a talk by Karl Grammer at the Mindship Foundation in Copenhagen, Denmark, in the summer of 1996. The beauties above are purely synthetic. They are auto-morphed from 10 American and 10 Japanese females with a program developed by the authors, which can create prototypes, analyse skin surfaces, symmetry, and the complexity of almost any stimulus. Currently it is used for the analysis of human faces and figures.
Grammer, K., Fink, B., Moller, A.P. and Thornhill, R., 2003. Darwinian aesthetics: sexual selection and the biology of beauty. Biological reviews, 78 (3), 385–407.
Anticipation is of marginal interest to the authors. But, their research documents the role it plays in evolution. Current theoretical and empirical findings suggest that mate preferences are cued on visual, vocal and chemical information that reveal developmental health. Beautiful and irresistible features have evolved in plants and animals due to sexual selection, and such preferences and beauty standards provide evidence for the claim that human beauty and obsession with bodily beauty are mirrored in analogous traits and tendencies throughout the plant and animal kingdoms. Beauty associates with the anticipation of health, i.e. viability.
Hardy, C. and Gre`s, S., 2004. Anticipation: human versus machines. International journal of computing anticipatory systems, 14, Liege: CHAOS, 48–64.
Considerations within the subject of human and machines. The anticipation angle is in regard to creativity.
Jarymowicz, M. and Bar-Tal, D., 2006. The dominance of fear over hope in the life of individuals and collectives. European journal of social psychology, 36 (3), 367–392.
The question why fear dominates hope in the life of individuals and collectives on the basis of the accumulated knowledge in the psychology, neurology, and sociology of emotions is at the centre of this contribution. This knowledge suggests that fear, as primary emotion, is grounded in the experienced present and based on the memorised past, processed both consciously and unconsciously, causes freezing and conservatism, and sometimes leads to pre-emptive aggression. Hope, in contrast, as a secondary emotion, involves cognitive activity, which requires anticipation and the search for new ideas and thus is based on complex processes of creativity and flexibility.
Lasseter, J., 1987. Principles of traditional animation applied to 3D computer animation. ACM computer graphics, 21 (4), 35–44.
This paper describes the basic principles of traditional 2D hand drawn animation and their application to 3D computer animation. A description of how these principles evolved is followed by detailed individual principles addressing their meanings in 2D hand drawn animation and their application to 3D computer animation. Lasseter recognises the role anticipation plays in animation and describes how anticipatory features are performed.
Levitin, D.J., 1999. Tone deafness: failures of musical anticipation and self-reference. International journal of computing and anticipatory systems, 4, Liege: CHAOS, 243–254.
Some of the individuals who are labelled as tone deaf lack the cognitive structures necessary to anticipate musical tonality and harmony. Or they lack internal self-referencing tonal schema within which to understand, process, and remember musical material.
Levitin, D.J., 1999. Absolute pitch: self-reference and human memory. International journal of computing anticipatory systems, 4, Liege: CHAOS, 255–266.
Absolute pitch, the rare ability to label pitches without external reference, appears to require acquisition early in life, and involves specialised brain mechanisms, now partially identified. Research on pitch coding strategies informs wider theories in cognitive science of semantic memory, and the nature of perceptual categories. Anticipation, which is of particular interest to Levitin, plays an important role (through the mechanism of self-reference).
Levitin, D.J. and Herrmann, E., 2007. This is your brain on music: the science of a human obsession. New York: Penguin Group USA.
Anticipatory aspects of music perception. Levitin is one of the first to account for musical perception from an anticipatory perspective.
Levitin, D.J., 2008. The world in six songs: how the musical brain created human nature. New York: Dutton, 368 pp.
Dedicated to a theory of how the brain evolved to play and listen to music in six fundamental forms – for knowledge, friendship, religion, joy, comfort, and love. Preserving the emotional history of our lives and of our species, from its very beginning, music was also allied to dance, as the brain’s structure confirms. Developing this neurological observation, Levitin shows how music and dance enabled the social bonding and friendship necessary for human culture and society to evolve.
Maier, M., 2005. Anticipation and gratification in Beethoven’s songs. Archiv fuer Musikwissenschaft [Musicology archive], 62 (4), 267–285.
One example of Beethoven’s musically inventive and individual approach is found in the Abendlied of 1820, in which he compositionally comments on the philosophical impact of the confrontation between physics and the idealistic concept of the human soul. Franz Schubert found the results interesting enough to transcribe the song in his own hand.
Minai, A.T., 2000. Aesthetics of anticipatory systems. In: AIP conference proceedings, 517, Melville, NY: AIP, 149–160.
Autopoiesis and mythopoiesis are identifiers of precise forms of creation. The author, interested mainly in what he calls Eastern Views of cosmic order (as implicit aesthetics), attempts to draw a picture of the worldview of classical theories. Afterwards, he revisits the modern or post-quantum mechanics picture – all this with the aim of submitting a new understanding of what anticipatory systems mean within each of these views of the world. The aesthetic experience associated with them results in a definition of what he calls ‘the undeterministic anticipatory characteristics of these systems’. To further specify them, Minai analyzes two contemporary theories – self-organization and autopoiesis – in order to illustrate the nature of anticipatory behaviour implicit in these systems.
Hawkins, J., 1999. That’s not how my brain works. Technology review, 102 (4), 76–79.
Jeff Hawkins, creator of the Palm Pilot, wants to figure out how the brain predicts. His approach is focused on character recognition. Hawkins applied his processing method to the design of handwriting recognition software.
May, M., 1996. Did Mozart use the golden section? American scientist, 84 (118), 118–119.
John F. Putz, a mathematician at Alma College, became intrigued with the notion that Mozart may have composed his piano sonatas using an ancient mathematical formula tool called the ‘golden section’. From the perspective of anticipation, the ‘golden section’ appears as a universally shared formal expectation that validates some shapes as more pleasing than others.
Nadin, M., 1990. Intelligence for animation. In: A. Reuter, ed. Informatik-Fachberichte, GI-20. Jahrestagung II, Informatik auf dem Weg zum Anwender [Computer science reports, GI-20. 2nd Annual conference, computer science on the way to the user], 258, London: Springer Verlag, 589–600.
‘Intelligent’ animation is not a matter of imitating the successes of the Disney studios with the aid of digital technology. It is rather a particular form of computational knowledge, a medium for testing hypotheses and exploring new designs. The characteristics of intelligence pertinent to expressing and understanding movement, change over a period of time, and autonomous behaviour in a world populated by other moving entities are far more important than technique. Thus intelligence for animation is represented by how we know about the world, how we express goals, how we can change the state of the world, and the kind of knowledge we need to plan strategies.
Nadin, M., 1999. Anticipation – a challenge. Available from: http://www.code. uni-wuppertal.de/uk/computational_design/who/nadin/lectures/Anticipation-challenge. pdf
The meaning of von Foerster’s statement ‘The cause lies in the future’ escapes the understanding of many scholars. For artists, however, the reversal of the time arrow in effect poses no problem. Since Descartes and Newton, artists have allowed themselves to be seduced by the physical explanation of the world the two scientists espoused. But what drives the artist is the future, more exactly the work to be. So if art pertains to the living artist, and the living comprises more than physics, then an aesthetic renaissance that includes digital technology will have to transcend the physical in order to articulate new questions, define new goals, and suggest new values. That is, the artist has to entrust himself to the anticipatory nature of true creativity.
Owen, S.G.,1999. Anticipation and character animation. Available from: http://www. siggraph.org/education/materials/HyperGraph/animation/character_animation/principles/ anticipation.htm
Anticipation can be the anatomical preparation for the action, e.g., retracting a foot before kicking a ball. It can also be a device to attract the viewer’s attention to the proper screen area and to prepare them for the action, e.g. raising the arms and staring at something before picking it up, or staring off-screen at something and then reacting to it before the action moves on-screen. An example of this is the opening scene of Luxo, Jr. The father is looking off-screen and then reacts to something. This sets up the viewers to look at that part of the screen so they are prepared when Luxo, Jr hops in from off-screen. A properly timed anticipation can enable the viewer to better understand a rapid action, e.g. preparing to run and then dashing off-screen. Anticipation can also create the perception of weight or mass, e.g. heavy persons might put their arms on a chair before they rise, whereas a smaller person might just stand up.
Perucho, J. and Pome´s, L., 1967. Gaudi: an architecture of anticipation. Barcelona: Poligrafa, 130 pp.
This is more than a beautiful and well-produced study featuring expressionist photography, primarily close-up views of masonry, brick, and tilework in the works of Antonio Gaudi. The anticipation discussed is representative of aesthetics, in particular of architecture as an anticipatory expression.
Soleri, P., 1993. The Arcosanti project. An urban laboratory? Mayer, AZ: The Cosanti Press, 233 pp.
Suburban sprawl, across the landscape, causes enormous waste, frustration and long-term costs by depleting land and resources. Dependency on the automobile intensifies these problems, while increasing pollution, congestion and social isolation. Arcosanti hopes to address these issues by building a three-dimensional, pedestrian-oriented city. Because this plan eliminates suburban sprawl, both the urban and natural environments should keep their integrity and thrive.
TenHouten, W.D., 2007. A general theory of emotions and social life. London/New York, NY: Routledge, 336 pp.
The four pairs of opposite primary emotions – acceptance and disgust, joy and sadness, anger and fear, anticipation and surprise – are the focus of a whole section of the book. In a subsequent section, the author discusses socialisation and the emotions – from alexithymia to symbolic elaboration and creativity. Anticipation is identified as implicit in creative activities.
Winter, S., 1996. Anticipation and violin strings. In: Lund University Cognitive Studies, LUCS 44. (Available from: http://www.lucs.lu.se/LUCS/044/LUCS.044.pdf).
The overall framework of this article concerns the social stabilisation of linguistic meaning in the ‘no-man’s land’ between pragmatics and semantics. It shows how some fundamental dimensions – power, initiative, anticipation, all related to expectations – contribute to this stabilisation. Anticipation is one of the expectation phenomena that this work focuses on: I anticipate when I bother now with something that I will use later (for example, when I buy food now to eat tonight). This aspect of cognition has been studied in planning research. But while Gutz (1991) is more interested in the cognitive ability to anticipate, Winter’s focus is on different strategies used by the participants in instructional interactions. Humans have the ability to anticipate, but we do not always use it when possible. His second aim is to study expectation strategies that represent a choice between concentration on anticipation – e.g. building a knowledge basis for future use – and opportunism – the conviction that I can concentrate now on what I want to do now, and that all future problems will be solved when the time comes with the information available at that moment.
Winter, S., 1998. Dialogue dynamics, violin strings, and the pragmatics–semantics continuum. In: Lund University Cognitive Science. Available from: http://www.lucs.lu.se/ Simon.Winter/thesis/pdf/p2.pdf.
This paper proposes a model of knowledge dynamics in dialog, applied to expert–novice dialogs dealing with violin-string change. The model works by focusing on breakdowns in the dialogs, where lack of understanding is signalled, and yields a functional stratification of the utterances in the dialogs, and more-or-less distinct levels of instruction, coordination and verbal labelling. These levels are then shown to correspond to different positions in the continuum between pragmatics and semantics. The analysis also shows a close interplay between information management and social phenomena, such as politeness.
Vernier, J.-P., 1973. H.G. Wells at the turn of the century: from science fiction to anticipation. Occasional papers, No. 1, Kensington: H.G. Wells Society.
Beginning at his ‘juvenilia’, Wells engaged in two different forms of intellectual activity: ‘ideas and fiction, the latter being a means of imagining the consequences of the former’. These strands separated (ca. 1900): one into novels, the other into anticipations.
6. Anticipation and society
Akhmet, M.U., Őktem, H., Pickl, S.W. and Weber, G.-W., 2006. An anticipatory extension of Malthusian model. In: AIP conference proceedings, 839, Melville, NY: AIP, 260–264.
In this paper, a new variable – deviation of population from an average value – is introduced. The purpose is to submit a new Malthus model using differential equations. The authors study the existence of periodic solutions and stability of the equations by method of reduction to discrete equations. It turns out that anticipatory features are characteristic of such equations.
Asproth, V., Holmberg, S.C. and HÃ¥kansson, A., 2006. Multi-modal anticipation in fuzzy space. In: AIP conference proceedings, 839, Melville, NY: AIP, 442–452.
According to the authors, members of society are stakeholders in the geographical space. This space makes up the shared room for living and activity. Henceforth, a careful, creative, and anticipatory planning, design and management of that space will be of paramount importance for our sustained life on earth. The quality of such planning could be significantly increased with help of computer-based modelling and simulation tools.
Baumeister, R.F., et al., 2007. How emotion shapes behavior: feedback, anticipation, and reflection, rather than direct causation. Personality and social psychology review, 11 (2), 167–203.
Fear causes fleeing and thereby saves lives. This exemplifies a popular and common-sense but increasingly untenable view that the direct causation of behaviour is the primary function of emotion. Instead, the authors develop a theory of emotion as a feedback system whose influence on behaviour is typically indirect. By providing feedback and stimulating retrospective appraisal of actions, conscious emotional states can promote learning and alter guidelines for future behaviour. Behaviour may also be chosen to pursue (or avoid) anticipated emotional outcomes. Rapid, automatic affective responses, in contrast to the full-blown conscious emotions, may inform cognition and behavioural choice and thereby help guide current behaviour. The automatic affective responses may also remind the person of past emotional outcomes and provide useful guides as to what emotional outcomes may be anticipated in the present. To justify replacing the direct causation model with the feedback model, the authors review a large body of empirical findings.
Bernheim, B.D. and Thomadsen, R., Memory and anticipation. Economic journal, 115 (503), 271–304.
The introduction of memory imperfections into models of economic decision making creates a natural role for anticipatory emotions. Their combination has striking behavioural implications. The paper first shows that agents can rationally select apparently dominated strategies. The authors consider Newcomb’s Paradox and the Prisoners’ Dilemma. They provide a resolution for Newcomb’s Paradox and argue that it requires the decision maker to ascribe only a tiny weight to anticipatory emotions. For some ranges of parameters, it is possible to obtain cooperation in the Prisoners’ Dilemma with probability arbitrarily close to unity. The second half of the paper provides a theory of reminders.
Bezold, C., 1978. Anticipatory democracy: people in the politics of the future (Introduction by Alvin Toffler). New York, NY: Random House, 405 pp.
The expression ‘anticipatory democracy’ was apparently coined by Toffler in his book Future shock. It is a theory of civics relying on democratic decision making that takes into account predictions of future events that have some credibility with the electorate. Bezold expands on Toffler’s expression, and approaches methods where the public, not just experts, participate in the ‘anticipation’.
Bozinovski, S., 2003. Anticipation driven artificial personality: building on Lewin and Loehlin. Anticipatory behavior in adaptive learning systems: foundations, theories, and systems (From the series Lecture: Notes on Computer Science), 2684, 133–150.
This paper addresses the issue of personality of an animat in terms of anticipation, motivation and emotion. It also discusses some relevant models and theories of personality, and their relation to consequence-driven systems theory. The main result of this work is a fundamental mathematical equation between emotion, motivation and behaviour. In essence, the result can be stated that what motivates an animat’s behaviour is the value of the anticipated emotional consequence of that behaviour. Experimental research with an artificial personality architecture is provided, supporting the obtained result.
Blaikie, N., 2000. Designing social research: the logic of anticipation. Cambridge: Polity Press, 352 pp.
This book is a companion to Approaches to Social Enquiry. The logic of anticipation is treated rather implicitly. The book is a comprehensive and integrated scheme for planning and preparing research designs and research proposals for students in the social sciences. Particular emphasis is on the formulation of research questions and the selection of appropriate research strategies (logics of enquiry) to answer them. Blaikie argues that other design decisions, such as the selection of data sources and methods of data collection and analysis, must be made in the light of the particular ontological and epistemological assumptions associated with each research strategy. The basic requirements for research designs and research proposals are laid out at the beginning of the book, followed by discussion of the major design elements, and the choices that need to be made about them. The author includes a critical review of some controversial issues, including the use of quantitative and qualitative methods, the role of case studies, the appropriateness of triangulation, the relevance of representative samples, and the limited role for tests of significance.
Cosson, C., 2003. War experiences and anticipation on the eve of World-War I. Franco- British military milieu. Revue d’Histoire Moderne et Contemporaine [Review of modern and contemporary history ], 50 (3), 127–147.
This study investigates the anticipation of war among the French and British military milieux before the First World War. Military observations reports on early twentieth century extra-occidental wars (Boer War, Russo-Japanese War, and Balkan Wars) provide insights into the attitude of the French and British armies to the new violence of war and shed light on the central role of violence in military culture and perceptions. The construction of models of anticipation is influenced by the experience of combat, but observations are quickly instrumentalised in the service of doctrine. The process of assimilating the new battlefield violence reveals the role played by modern armament and colonial wars in the radicalisation of combat practice. This study aims to elaborate the history of anticipation, while emphasising the fact that in armies the preparation for new war resides first and foremost in the anticipation of future combat violence.
Donaldson, J.B. and Dutta, J., 1995. Anticipation and the aggregation of idiosyncratic risks. PaineWebber working paper series in money, economics and finance, PW-95-13. New York, NY: Columbia Business School, Columbia University, 49 pp.
This paper brings up the notion of business cycles (and the appropriate mathematical models for describing them), the notion of productivity (in respect to which anticipation is brought up) and risk management.
Ekdahl, B., 2001. Can computers be social? International journal of computing anticipatory systems, 21, Liege: CHAOS, 95–106.
This contribution extends the author’s interest in anticipation from a computational perspective (in this case, agent-based computation). However, the questions entertained are of social significance. The conception that software agents can attain socially responsible behaviour originates in the need for agents to interact with one another in a cooperating manner. Such interplay among agents can be seen as a combinatorial situation: the rules are fixed and the actors are supposed to understand the plan in order to behave rationally. This kind of rationality has been successfully mathematically described. When the social behaviour is extended beyond rational behaviour, mere mathematical analysis falls short. For such behaviour, language is decisive for transferring concepts. Since language is a holistic entity, it cannot be analysed and defined mathematically. Accordingly, computers cannot be furnished with a language in the sense that meaning can be conveyed. Consequently, they lack all the necessary properties to be made social. Basically, the author rejects the notion that computers can anticipate.
Fei, W., 2007. Optimal consumption and portfolio choice with ambiguity and anticipation. Information sciences: an international journal archive, 177 (23), 5178–5190.
This paper, adopting the recursive multiple-priors utility, studies the optimal consumption and portfolio choice in a Merton-style model with anticipation when there is a difference between ambiguity and risk. The fundamental issue is what the effects of ambiguity and anticipation on the investor’s behaviour are. In the case of a logarithmic felicity function, the author also shows that no hedging demand arises that is affected by both ambiguity and anticipation. Finally, the optimal portfolio is derived in terms of Malliavin derivatives and stochastic integrals.
Fogelholm, J., 2000. The state-of-the-art in modelling anticipatory economic behavior of complex production processes. In: AIP conference proceedings, 517, Melville, NY: AIP, 194–204.
The ability to predict accurately the resource or economic behaviour of an industrial process is very significant in assessing the model used. This means, in the author’s view, that the anticipatory aspect of its actual use represents the main criterion for its assessment. Contemplating the actual models in industrial use until now, one can discern an evident increase in the accuracy of the anticipatory information supplied by the models. But as the production processes to be modelled have increased even more in technical complexity, the anticipatory capacity of models has not been able to keep pace with the technical aspect of the processes under scrutiny. The aim of this paper is to present an overview of recent developments in management.
Godet, M., 1991. De l’anticipation a` l’action: manuel de prospective et de strate´gie [From anticipation to action: a manuel for foresight and strategy (Preface by J.-L. Beffa). Politique e´trange`re, 56 (4), 1011–1013.
The author wrote: foresight, as a prospective is usually translated, involves anticipation (pre- or pro-activity) to clarify present actions in light of possible and desirable futures. He quotes Gaston Berger: ‘looking at the future disturbs not only the future but also the present’ and ‘anticipation encourages action’. Godet concludes: anticipation is imperative in the contemporary business climate. That in 1991 this was the case (yet another economic crisis) is evident. In our days, the conclusion is even more evident.
Hamm, A., 2008. Anticipation and exposure to threat. In: C. Dalbert, ed. The abstracts of the XXIX International Congress of Psychology. Special Issues of the International Journal of Psychology, 43(3/4). London: Psychology Press. —Paper presented in the session Emotion and the brain at the XXIX international congress in psychology (Berlin, July 2008). The author presents a series of experiments in which patients with specific phobias and panic disorder either anticipate and/or are exposed to their fear-specific situations. Protective reflexes are potentiated during anticipation and exposure to threat while appetitive stimulation is associated with inhibition of this reflex. Activation of the human amygdale, on the other hand, is increased both during pleasant and threat-related stimulation. Activation of the anterior insular cortex seems to be specific for defensive response mobilisation during anxiety disorders.
Hwang, S.S., et al., 2007. Anticipation of migration and psychological stress and the Three Gorges Dam project, China. Social science and medicine, 65 (5), 1012–1024.
Findings from a prospective study of project-induced migration in China’s Three Gorges Dam project are reported. The study tests the hypotheses that anticipation of involuntary migration is stressful and that the harmful effects are partially mediated and moderated by the resources migrants possess. Using data collected from a sample of designated migrants (n1/4 975) who will be forced to relocate because they live in an area, which will be flooded once the Three Gorges project is completed, and non-migrants (n 1/4 555) in the same region, this analysis indicates that anticipation of involuntary migration is a robust predictor of mental distress. Anticipation of forced migration elevates depression (Centre for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale) not only directly, but also indirectly by weakening the social and the psychological resources (i.e. social support and mastery), which safeguard the mental well-being of migrants. However, the results show much less support for the hypothesis that resources moderate harmful effects of forced migration.
Kindler, E., 2002. When everybody anticipates in a different way. In: AIP conference proceedings, 627, Melville, NY: AIP, 119–127.
The interaction of several individuals results in anticipation expression affected by those interacting. Computer modelling of anticipatory systems in which anticipating individuals interact is the subject of the presentation. The author suggests four main cases: (1) the anticipating persons in a dialogue, seeking some agreement through which they can optimise the anticipation; (2) one of the anticipating persons is the teacher of the others. He/she can show them how they can improve their anticipation; (3) the anticipating persons compete, each of them expecting to make the best anticipation and wishing to apply it to make the other ones weaker; (4) the anticipating persons do not mutually communicate. The description is at times quite simplistic, but the thought is relevant.
Knutson, B., Adams, C.M., Fong, G.W. and Hommer, D., 2001. Anticipation of increasing monetary reward selectively recruits nucleus accumbens. Journal of neuroscience, 21 (16), 1–5. Available from: http://www.jneurosci.org/cgi/content/full/21/16/RC159.
First: nucleus accumbens, a collection of neurons within the forebrain, is thought to play an important role in reward, laughter, pleasure, addiction, fear and the placebo effect. With this description in mind, comparative studies have implicated the nucleus accumbens (NAcc) in the anticipation of incentives, but the relative responsiveness of this neural substrate during anticipation of rewards versus punishments remains unclear. Using eventrelated functional magnetic resonance imaging, the authors investigated whether the anticipation of increasing monetary rewards and punishments would increase NAcc blood oxygen level-dependent contrast (i.e. activation) in eight healthy volunteers. Whereas anticipation of increasing rewards elicited both increasing self-reported happiness and NAcc activation, anticipation of increasing punishment elicited neither. However, anticipation of both rewards and punishments activated a different striatal region (the medial caudate). At the highest reward level ($5.00), NAcc activation was correlated with individual differences in self-reported happiness elicited by the reward cues. These findings suggest that whereas other striatal areas may code for expected incentive magnitude, a region in the NAcc codes for expected positive incentive value.
Leydesdorff, L.A. and Dubois, D.M., 2004. Anticipation in social systems: the incursion and communication of meaning. International journal of computing anticipatory systems, 15, Liege: CHAOS, 203–216.
In the words of the authors: ‘Rosen defined an anticipatory system as a system that contains a model of the system itself. For example, a biological system can use this internal representation for anticipatory adaptation, that is, to predict the survival value of the system among its possible manifestations at a next moment in time. Dubois distinguished between weak anticipation – when systems use a model of themselves for computing future states – and strong anticipation – when the system uses itself for the construction of its future states. In the latter case, anticipation is no longer similar to prediction’. In this paper, the authors argue that the social system can be considered as anticipatory in the strong sense: ‘This system constructs its future by providing the expected information content of the distribution of events with meaning. The anticipations can be communicated among the agents in a next-order network that feeds back on the information-processing network. However, meaning is provided with hindsight, and therefore meaning processing also feeds back on the time axis within the system. The sole assumption of social relatedness as a variable among groups of agents provides sufficient basis for deriving the logistic map as a first-order approximation of the social system. The anticipatory formulation of this equation can be derived for anticipation in the interaction term and in the aggregation among subgroups. Using this formula in a cellular automaton, an observer is generated as a reflection of the system under observation. The social system of interactions among observations can improve on the representations entertained by each of the observing systems’.
Leydesdorff, L., 2008. The communication of meaning in anticipatory systems: a simulation study of the dynamics of intentionality in social interactions. In: AIP conference proceedings, 1051, Melville, NY: AIP, 33–52.
Psychological and social systems provide us with a natural domain for the study of anticipations because these systems are based on and operate in terms of intentionality. Psychological systems can be expected to contain a model of themselves and their environments; social systems can be strongly anticipatory and therefore co-construct their environments, for example, in techno-economic (co-)evolutions. Using Dubois’ hyperincursive and incursive formulations of the logistic equation, these two types of systems and their couplings can be simulated. In addition to their structural coupling, psychological and social systems are also coupled by providing meaning reflexively to each other’s meaning-processing. Luhmann’s distinctions among (1) interactions between intentions at the micro-level, (2) organisation at the meso-level, and (3) self-organisation of the fluxes of meaningful communication at the global level can be modelled and simulated using three hyper-incursive equations. The global level of self-organising interactions among fluxes of communication is retained at the meso-level of organisation. In a knowledge-based economy, these two levels of anticipatory ‘structuration’ can be expected to propel each other at the supra-individual level.
Leydesdorff, L., 2009. The non-linear dynamics of meaning processing in social systems. Social science information, 48 (1), 5–33.
Social order cannot be considered as a stable phenomenon because it contains an order of reproduced expectations. When the expectations operate upon one another, they generate a non-linear dynamics that processes meaning. Specific meaning can be stabilised, for example, in social institutions, but all meaning arises from a horizon of possible meanings. Using Luhmann’s social systems theory and Rosen’s theory of anticipatory systems, I submit equations for modelling the processing of meaning in inter-human communication. First, a self-referential system can use a model of itself for the anticipation. Under the condition of functional differentiation, the social system can be expected to entertain a set of models; each model can also contain a model of the other models. Two anticipatory mechanisms are then possible: one transversal between the models and a longitudinal one providing the modelled systems with meaning from the perspective of hindsight. A system containing two anticipatory mechanisms can become hyper-incursive. Without decisionmaking, however, a hyper-incursive system would be overloaded with uncertainty. Under this pressure, informed decisions tend to replace the ‘natural preferences’ of agents, and an order of cultural expectations can increasingly be shaped.
Makarenko, A., 2002. Anticipating in modelling of social systems – neuronets with Internal structure and multivaluedness. International journal of computing anticipatory systems, 13, Liege: CHAOS, 77–92.
Makarenko considers the principles that might guide new models of society, their applications and further research problems. The proposed models consist of elements and bonds between them. The models for society are analogous to neural network models. To account for mentality, the author introduces the intrinsic mental models of the world in elements, which represent the individuals or decision-makers. Accounting for the anticipatory aspects of individuals leads to multi-valuedness in models. Connections to consciousness and quantum mechanics investigations are also discussed.
Bulava, P., 2008. Anticipating systems in demography. International journal of computing anticipatory systems, Liege: CHAOS, 20, 243–249.
Paper presented by the author who, together with Eugene Kindler, organised a special session (on Object-Oriented Programming) at CASYS ’07. The focus of his research (in mathematics) is demographic models using discrete simulation.
La Porte, T.R., 1991. Social responses to large technical systems: control or anticipation. NATO science series D: behavioral and social sciences, Vol. 58, Heidelberg: Springer, 204 pp.
During the 1980s and 1990s, social scientists directed their attention to the phenomenon of large technical systems (LTS). Communications, energy, transportation, water, all had become critical support systems whose failure could have devastating consequences for society. Research during this first phase explored the development of LTSs (Mayntz and Hughes 1988), conditions of changing LTSs (Summerton 1994) and the governance of LTSs (Coutard 1999). LaPorte is focused on social responses to LTSs.
Medeiros Rivera, S.L. de, Storb, B.H. and Wazlawick, R.S., 1999. Economic theory, anticipatory systems and artificial adaptive agents. Brazilian electronic journal of economics, 2 (2). Available from: http://econpapers.repec.org/article/bejissued/ v_3a2_3ay_3a1999_3ai_3a2_3arivero.htm
In this paper, the authors propose an artificial intelligence approach to simulation in economics based on a multi-agent system. The multi-agent approach is based on the work of Holland and Miller: economic system may be viewed as a complex dynamic adaptive system with a large number of different kinds of agents and that these agents can be simulated using classifier systems. In the model developed herein, the agents make decisions based on the anticipation of the future state of the world. The concept of anticipation is developed from the work of Davidsson (a follower of Rosen). The agents are heterogeneous, autonomous, adaptive and anticipatory. This model is compared with the one developed by Arthur, and is based on similarity measures between situations, actions and changes in the world. These measures are useful for a computationally simulated economic agent to compare previous situations, actions and results, and to decide which action could lead to a situation with the best utility or satisfaction degree.
Milinski, M., Semmann, D. and Krambeck, H.-J., 2002. Reputation helps solve the ‘tragedy of the commons’. Nature, 415, 424–426.
The social problem of sustaining a public resource subject to overuse – what is known as the ‘tragedy of the commons’ – leads to the inability to sustain the global climate. Since Hardin first described the ‘tragedy of the commons’, this type of social dilemma has been studied extensively by political and social scientists, economists and evolutionary theorists. The anticipatory perspective is relatively new. Public goods experiments, which are used to study this type of problem, usually confirm that the collective benefit will not be produced. Because individuals and countries often participate in several social games simultaneously, the interaction of these games may provide a sophisticated way by which to maintain the public resource. Indirect reciprocity, ‘give and you shall receive’, is built on reputation and can sustain a high level of cooperation, as shown by game theorists. Through alternating rounds of public goods and indirect reciprocity games, the need to maintain reputation for indirect reciprocity maintains contributions to the public good at an unexpectedly high level. But if rounds of indirect reciprocation are not expected, contributions to the public good quickly drop to zero. Alternating the games leads to higher profits for all players. As reputation may be a valid currency in many social games, the authors’ approach could be used to test social dilemmas for their solubility. Reputation projects anticipation.
Meyvis, T. and Cooke, A.D.J., 2007. Learning from mixed feedback: anticipation of the future reduces appreciation of the present. Journal of consumer research, 34 (2), 200–211.
Consumers can evaluate their past choices by comparing their obtained outcome to other possible outcomes. The authors demonstrate that how people process this comparative feedback depends on whether they use it to prepare for future decisions. In particular, the anticipation of similar future choices increases consumers’ sensitivity to comparisons with better alternatives and reduces their liking of the chosen option. The findings indicate that forward-looking consumers selectively test the hypothesis that their current choice can be improved on and, as a result, disproportionately attend to the unfavourable comparisons and fail to appreciate the value of their current choice.
Mojzisch, A., et al., 2008. Combined effects of knowledge about others’ opinions and anticipation of group discussion on confirmatory information search. Small group research, 39 (2), 203–223.
There is conclusive evidence that information search processes are typically biased in favour of the information seeker’s own opinion (confirmation bias). Less is known about how knowledge about others’ opinions affects this confirmatory information search. In the present study, the authors manipulated feedback about others’ opinions and anticipation of group interaction. As predicted, the effect of knowledge about others’ opinions on confirmatory information search depended on whether participants anticipated interacting with these others. Specifically, minority members anticipating a group discussion exhibited a particularly strong confirmation bias, whereas minority members who did not anticipate a discussion predominantly sought information opposing their opinion. For participants, not anticipating group interaction, confidence about the correctness of one’s decision mediated the impact of knowledge about others’ opinions on confirmatory information search. Results are discussed with regard to the de-biasing effect of preference heterogeneity on confirmatory information search in groups.
Myers, M.L., 2007. Anticipation of risks and benefits of emerging technologies: a prospective analysis method. Human and ecological risk assessment, 13 (5), 1042–1052.
Methods for identifying, evaluating and controlling hazards are well recognised, whereas a method for the anticipation of hazards has eluded the field of industrial hygiene. The Emerging Technologies Team at the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health has developed a method for anticipating not only occupational hazards but also potential benefits of emerging technologies for occupational safety and health. This method incorporates forecasting tools with a prospective assessment step into the risk assessment model, stresses research results as an iterative driver in the assessment, and depends on inherently safer design to eliminate or reduce hazards. An iterative process that involves the occupational safety and health professional as a team member in the development of emerging technologies is recommended.
Nadin, M., 2001. Trust – a question of anticipation or trust – anticipation and survival. In: L. Becker, T. Eicher and M. Nadin, eds. Trust – Das Prinzip Vertrauen/trust – the 21st century and beyond, Heidelberg: Synchron, 1–10.
It would not be unusual for a person living in our time to go to the bank and deposit one million dollars (or Euros, or English pounds), entrusting this amount to an unknown teller. But it would be exceptional for the sameperson to execute the same transaction through the Internet. Many of us would eat some exotic meal in a restaurant, but not touch a genetically engineered tomato. Somewill followa grandmother’s advice and swallowa rather disgusting concoction of herbs and roots but cringe at the thought of a recombined DNA sequence. The list of examples can go on, from e-commerce, to business-to-business transactions, to distance learning. All such examples have in common the human characteristic underlying all interactions, which is more or less expressed through the notion of trust.
Neumann, G., 1994. A uniform computational model for natural language parsing and generation. Thesis (PhD). Universita¨t des Saarlandes, Germany.
The anticipation feedback loop is the centre of this PhD thesis. The basic idea of the anticipation feedback loop model is the use of the system’s natural language understanding component in order to anticipate the preferred user’s interpretation of an utterance which the system plans to realise.
van Nieuwenhuijze, O., 2001. Perfect anticipation (why you (won’t) want it). International journal of computing anticipatory systems, 10, Liege: CHAOS, 14–22.
As the author puts it: ‘perfect anticipation’ predicts perfectly. It collapses the future into a continuation of our past, making it known and predictable. It eliminates choice from the reality of life, making it invariant, static – thus dead. But the author goes even further: ‘perfect anticipation’ thus must predict the choices and keeps the singularities (options) within the system. Such perfect anticipation would (1) reduce ‘living’ to ‘the expectation of alternatives’; (2)would need to add the prediction of the outcomes of the choice in order to be fully anticipatory; and (3) have a true basis for evaluating the choice. In the final analysis, ‘perfect anticipation’ (to quote the author once more) is an internalisation of the mapping of the system interface, collapsing within the system itself. This eliminates the conditional constrains from the considerations and leaves the dynamics of realisation itself. This leads to a collapse of comprehension.
O’Donoghue, T. and Rabin, M., 2001. Choice and procrastination. Quarterly journal of economics, 116 (1), 121–160.
Procrastination is of a social relevance. Recent models of procrastination due to self-control problems assume that procrastinators consider just one option and are unaware of their self control problems. The authors developed a model where a person chooses from a menu of options and is partially aware of her self-control problems. This menu model replicates earlier results and generates new ones. A person might forego completing an attractive option because he/she plans to complete a more attractive but never-to-be-completed option. Hence, providing a non-procrastinator with additional options can induce procrastination, and a person may procrastinate worse by pursuing important goals than unimportant ones.
O’Hare, M., 1989. Risk anticipation as a social cost. Cambridge, MA: Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, 18 pp.
As one of the working papers of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, this publication covers aspects of anticipation related to the participating industries’ location and risk assessment.
Ramnani, N. and Miall, R., 2003. Instructed delay activity in the human prefrontal cortex is modulated by monetary reward expectation. Cerebral cortex, 13 (3), 318–327.
Social aspects are captured through the mechanism of reward (concretely: monetary rewards). Goal-directed actions are executed with greater efficiency when the goals of the actions are rewarded. Therefore, the reward expectation must influence systems concerned with action-planning and motor control. However, little is known about how this influence is achieved in primates. The authors demonstrate in human subjects that manual performance is enhanced when the goals of the visually cued actions are monetary rewards. They also used event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging in the same subjects to localise neural activity related to action preparation and selection that was influenced by the reward. They found three areas with significant interaction between reward and preparation: the prestriate visual cortex, the premotor cortex and the lateral prefrontal cortex. The latter two areas appear to be frontal systems integrating the expectation of rewards with selection and preparation of actions.
Simmons, A., Matthews, S.C., Stein, M.B. and Paulus, M.P., 2004. Anticipation of emotionally aversive visual stimuli activates right insular. Neuroreport, 15 (14), 2261–2265.
One key component of anxiety is the anticipation of future harm. In phobic individuals, anxiety occurs not only during exposure to the specific object or condition of the phobia, but also in anticipation of experiencing the object or condition. Thus, anticipation is a critical aspect of anxiety processing. Understanding the neural substrates of anticipation is required for a comprehensive model of the ways in which anxiety influences information processing. While it is apparent that the insula and medial frontal cortex are involved in processing anticipation of physical (i.e. painful) stimuli, their role in processing anticipation of aversive affective stimuli has yet to be determined.
Szeman, I., 2007. System failure: oil, futurity, and the anticipation of disaster. South Atlantic quarterly, 106 (4), 805–823.
‘Nobody gets beyond a petroleum economy. Not while there’s petroleum there’, defines the premise. The article describes various scenarios related to the oil markets. The anticipation of disaster is more a metaphor.
Theriou, N.G. and Tsirigotis, G., 2001. The construction of an anticipatory model for the strategic management decision making process at the firm level. International journal of computing anticipatory systems, 9, Liege: CHAOS, 221–227.
This paper analyses the effect of productivity on profitability at the firm level through the construction of an anticipatory framework/model, based on Gold’s model. It is a total productivity measurement model, which directly measures and relates productivity with long-term profitability (defined as the shareholder value added) and uses dynamic productivity ratios and their effects on profitability in value terms. The proposed model could support management at the business unit level in their strategic decision-making process (the formulation and evaluation of proposed future strategies), and the evaluation of current strategies (the performance measurement and improvement process), and could close the gap between strategy development and its implementation.
Turkiewicz, K. and Turkiewicz, D.B., 2002. Feasibility and conditions for the application of anticipatory systems into changes in social structures. In: AIP conference proceedings, 627, Melville, NY: AIP, 423–431.
The authors focus on motivational factors. The novelty, as they see it, is the natural modelling of social processes based on the structure of the conditional sentence and the notion of the field of force. This model is used to systematically show the most important practical current feasibilities and conditions of realisation and use of complex anticipatory systems in steering of social structures.
Winston, N.A. and Barnes, J., 2007. Anticipation of retirement among baby boomers. Journal of woman and aging, 19 (3–4), 137–159.
A total of 32 interviews were conducted with women in academia who were born between 1946 and 1964. Of these interviews, 21 were completed with academic women in the USA, and 11 with academic women in New Zealand. The data were analysed to determine what these ‘baby boomers’ anticipate for their retirement, as well as their concerns about facing retirement. Cohort and cross-cultural comparisons were made. The authors identified common themes in the interviews. These included rejection of the traditional definition of retirement, anticipated age at retirement determined by personal needs rather than age-graded societal norms, retirement projected to be an active period involving a mix of work and leisure activities, and major concerns, about health and health care, the availability of entitlements and finances. The findings from this study indicate baby boomers are forging a new path for retirement.
Yolles, M. and Dubois, D.M., 2001. Anticipatory viable systems. International journal of computing anticipatory systems, 9, Liege: CHAOS, 3–20.
Viable systems are coherent social organisations that are able to survive. Part of their survival process involves anticipation that is embedded in their logical models. The development of viable systems often occurs despite their inability to develop common patterns of knowledge for those who hold this world view. This means that new anticipatory processes must be activated, when the viability of such systems may be endangered.
7. Various applications: driving, sports, games, character animation, fiction and more
Adamkiewicz, W.H., 1999. Remarks on a multidisciplinary system approach applied to the socio-econo-techno complex as the anticipatory systems. International journal of computing anticipatory systems, 1, Liege: CHAOS (a section of the Introduction).
The author contributed many papers on the subject. The paper is but a fragment of a research description dealing with social systems saturated with technology products. The aim of the research is to determine the possibility of predicting the influence of changes in the system on the process leading to the adaptation to the environment. The adaptation process is an activity based on anticipation of the future system states and environment states. Therefore, it is essential to determine the relationships existing between these two sets of states.
Adamkiewicz, W.H., 2001. Selected remarks about anticipation in instrumental civilization subsystems. In: AIP conference proceedings, 573, Melville, NY: AIP, 566–577.
Adaptation process is based on anticipation of the future system states and environment states. Therefore, it is essential to determine the relationships existing between these two sets of states. Research results should determine the efficiency level of anticipating activity. Many processes take place in the system and its environment. Simultaneous research on all processes allows for specifying the effect of the synergy determining the adaptation. Researching all processes is not possible, though. Therefore, it is necessary to use appropriate model, which may be created by applying general rule of systems approach. Nowadays, social systems must adapt to the increasing pace of globalisation involving products, markets, competition and finance. The ability to adapt the system to the global situation is the condition for survival and possible development.
Asproth, V. and Haka¨nsson, A., 2006. Simulation and anticipation in critical situations caused by flooding. International journal of computing anticipatory systems, 19, Liege: CHAOS, 28–36.
Floods are one of the natural catastrophes that every year has the most victims and the greatest economical effects around the world. In Sweden and other European countries, death due to floods is relatively unusual, but the damage to tangible assets and the cost to society are considerable. Many organisations become involved and it is very difficult to assess the entire situation in order to obtain a complete image of simultaneous events. There is also a lack of efficient tools for identifying critical infrastructure (e.g. roads, railways, water-purifying plants) in relation to actual and forecasted water levels. The authors discuss anticipation of critical factors to be included in a model for visualising damage caused by floods.
Vargas, J.G. and Torr, D.G., 2006. Anticipation at the juncture of geometry and calculus. International journal of computing anticipatory systems, 19, Liege: CHAOS, 194–209.
The subject of anticipation is rarely related to the language of mathematics. Still, there is insight to be gained from examining anticipation at the meeting point of geometry (space descriptions) and calculus (where time is important).
Beresneviciene, D., 2006. Anticipatory psychological model of European University. International journal of computing anticipatory systems, 18, Liege: CHAOS, 258–276.
Attempt to address the European University from a perspective of psychology informed by an anticipatory perspective. The author published quite a number of articles in which the conceptual framework was defined.
Borysiuk, Z. and Sadowski, J., 2007. Time and spatial aspects of movement anticipation. Biology of sport, 24 (3), 285–295.
In the authors’ view, anticipation is a mental process consisting of foreseeing future events and situations based on shortening the selection stage in the information phase of sensorimotor responses. Through anticipation it is possible to programme proper technical actions in a sports fight and to correct the influence of advance signals on changing reaction time and other parameters (movement time, latent time). The research work proved that the factors anticipating motor activities significantly increase their effectiveness, decreasing both reaction time and the movement itself. This phenomenon refers especially to the sensor phase, mainly to the stage of motor programme selection.
Burdet, E., et al., 2001. The central nervous system stabilizes unstable dynamics by learning optimal impedance. Nature, 414 (22), 447–448.
How do we succeed in performing mechanically unstable tasks? Keeping a screwdriver in the slot of a screw is unstable because excessive force parallel to the slot can cause the screwdriver to slip and because misdirected force can cause loss of contact between the screwdriver and the screw. Stability may be dependent on the control of mechanical impedance in the human arm because mechanical impedance can generate forces which resist destabilising motion.
Callan, D.E. and Schweighofer, N., 2007. Positive and negative modulation of word learning by reward anticipation. Human brain mapping, 29 (2), 237–249.
Recent evidence from neuroscience indicates that the anticipation of external rewards may enhance declarative memory consolidation by increasing dopaminergic-modulated plasticity in the hippocampus. A number of studies in psychology, however, have shown that external rewards may have null, or even negative, effects on learning. To shed light on this issue, the authors developed a novel task, in which native Japanese speakers were rewarded for learning unknown English words inside a functional MRI scanner.
Corts, J. and Hackmann, D., 2009. Risk management and anticipation: a case study in the steel industry. In:M. Nadin, ed. Risk and decision analysis (special issue: Anticipation and risk assessment), 1 (2), 103–112.
In 2004, Corts, the owner of a steel refinery in Germany, was introduced to theories of anticipation and the possibility of applying them as an underlying component of the knowledge-driven economy. He and Hackmann understood that anticipation-driven solutions improve an enterprise’s competitive edge. They recognised the risk, which many traditional industries face, of remaining captive to a production model that competitors can easily emulate, and applied anticipation in order to switch from the industrial model to a knowledge economy alternative. The article reports their results.
Cottam, R., Ranson, W. and Vounckx, R., 2006. Anticipative anti-anti-anthropomorphism. International journal of computing anticipatory systems, 17, Liege: CHAOS, 286–291.
The authors are dedicated to the study of the mind and are working towards a description of the mind as an evolving anticipatory entity. They worked on replicating Rosen’s M,Rsystem, and this approach is reflected in their view of anticipation. In this text, they argue that anticipatory capability is ‘the best descriptor of evolutionary advancement’. They also establish the equivalence in the evolution of survivability, consciousness, intelligence and wisdom. The anti-anti-anthropomorphism alluded to goes back to philosophical discussions (including those on Newton’s Laws).
Craig, C.M., Delay, D., Grealy, M.A. and Lee, D.N., 2000. Guiding the swing in golf putting. Nature, 405, 295–296.
Actions that involve making contact with surfaces often demand perceptual regulation of the impact – for example, of feet with ground when walking or of bat with ball when hitting. The authors investigate how this control of impact is achieved in golf putting, where control of the club-head motion at ball impact is paramount in ensuring that the ball will travel the required distance. Their results indicate that the club-head motion is spatially scaled, and perceptually regulated by coupling it onto an intrinsic guide generated in the nervous system. Anticipation is an implicit subject.
Etcoff, N., 1999. Survival of the prettiest. The science of beauty. New York, NY: Doubleday, 336 pp.
The author of this book is a psychologist and faculty member of Harvard Medical School and Harvard University’s Mind–Brain–Behaviour Initiative. She directs the Program in Aesthetics and Well Being at Massachusetts General Hospital’s Department of Psychiatry. Etcoff has conducted research on the perception of beauty, emotion and the brain for over 15 years. The book shows that in Brazil, Avon ladies outnumber army soldiers. US consumers spend more on beauty supplies than education and social services combined. Etcoff contends that these trends do not stem from media influences or unabashed narcissism but from our will to survive. In considering across cultures and history ideals of beauty that incorporate scarring, painting and padding the body, Etcoff formulates a thesis that binds physical attractiveness to our evolutionary roots and the survival of our genes. In Etcoff’s view, such concepts of beauty are founded in natural selection. She sites research indicating that infants come equipped with the ability to discern good looks and presents a host of equally provocative ideas on the subject.
Fieno, T.E., Bargiotas, D.T. and Tsoukalas, L.H., 2002. Optimized anticipatory control applied to electric power systems. International journal of computing anticipatory systems, 11, Liege: CHAOS, 275–287.
The title of this presentation fully describes its focus. The paper is of interest to those working on engineering tasks related to anticipation.
Fukuhara, K., Ida, H. and Ishii, M., 2007. Anticipation of tennis serves from computer graphics animation. Journal of sport and exercise psychology, 29, 73.
Can computer graphics animation be used to perceptual training in tennis?: A comparison between computer graphics animation and video film presentation. The authors, from the Tokyo Institute of Technology, have experience with rehabilitation and therefore their method, which visualises anticipation expressed in tennis, is significant not only for those active in sports.
Goldfarb, L., Scrimger, I. and Peter-Paul, B.R., 2009. ETS as a structural language for decision-modeling analysis: planning, anticipation and monitoring. In: M. Nadin, ed. Risk and decision analysis (special issue: Anticipation and risk assessment), 1 (2), 76–85.
The authors advance their mathematical model of evolving transformational systems that are intended to represent processes instead of the usual number-based descriptions of the state of affairs in the world. The understanding of anticipation is rather subtle. The reader will easily find ways to generalise from the example that the authors chose (an insider’s view of a terrorist operation) to many possible applications, using an internal view of a generic planning process.
Huys, R., et al., 2009. Global information pickup underpins anticipation of tennis shot direction. Journal of motor behavior, 41 (2), 158–170.
The authors examined the importance of local dynamical information when anticipating tennis shot direction. In separate experiments, they occluded the arm and racket, shoulders, hips, trunk and legs and locally neutralised dynamical differences between shot directions, respectively. The authors examined the impact of these manipulations on resulting (display) dynamics and the ability of participants with varying perceptual skills to anticipate shot direction. The occlusion manipulation affected the display dynamics to a larger extent than did the neutralisation manipulation. Although the authors observed a decrement in performance when local information from the arm and racket was occluded or neutralised and when information from the trunk and legs was neutralised, the results generally suggest that participants anticipated shot direction through a more global perceptual approach, particularly in perceptually skilled participants.
Imamizu, H., et al., 2000. Human cerebellar activity reflecting an acquired internal model of a new tool. Nature, 403 (6766), 192–195.
Theories of motor control postulate that the brain uses internal models of the body to control movements accurately. Internal models are neural representations of how, for instance, the arm would respond to a neural command, given its current position and velocity. Previous studies have shown that the cerebellar cortex can acquire internal models through motor learning. Because the human cerebellum is involved in higher cognitive function as well as in motor control, the authors propose a coherent computational theory in which the phylogenetically newer part of the cerebellum similarly acquires internal models of objects in the external world. While human subjects learned to use a new tool (a computer mouse with a novel rotational transformation), cerebellar activity was measured by functional magnetic resonance imaging. As predicted by the authors’ theory, two types of activity were observed. One was spread over wide areas of the cerebellum and was precisely proportional to the error signal that guides the acquisition of internal models during learning. The other was confined to the area near the posterior superior fissure and remained even after learning, when the error levels had been equalised, thus probably reflecting an acquired internal model of the new tool.
Kirvelis, D. and Beitas, K., 2004. Development of anticipatory control in bio-systems: five levels of closed-loop coding-decoding in the visual analysers. International journal of computing anticipatory systems, 13, Liege: CHAOS, 64–78.
Evolutionary analysis of functional organisation of nerve systems and of behaviour shows five informational control levels that represent specific procedures of the closed-loop coding–decoding. It may be that weak anticipatory prediction is realised at simple reflection. Multi-reflexic coordination structures, incursive anticipatory feedback control at regulation and simple analysers structures. And strong anticipation control at neocortex structures, which work by Analysis-by-Synthesis. Strong anticipation is perhaps used only in brains of mammals and birds that are able to create models of future activities. The authors believe that this signifies the ability to think. Higher mammals, especially apes and humans, have sensory screens that enhance mental imaging in the Area Striata.
Kourtis, D., et al., 2008. Maintaining grip: anticipatory and reactive EEG responses to load perturbations. Journal of neurophysiology, 99 (2), 545–553.
Previous behavioural work has shown the existence of both anticipatory and reactive grip force responses to predictable load perturbations. But how the brain implements anticipatory control remains unclear. The authors recorded electroencephalographs while participants were subjected to predictable and unpredictable external load perturbations. Participants used precision grip to maintain the position of an object perturbed by load force pulses. The load perturbations were either distributed randomly over an interval 700 to 4,300 ms (unpredictable condition); or they were periodic with interval 2000 ms (predictable condition). Preparation for the predictable load perturbation was manifested in slow preparatory brain potentials and in electromyographic and force signals recorded concurrently. Preparation modulated the long-latency reflex elicited by load perturbations with a higher amplitude reflex response for unpredictable compared with predictable perturbations. Importantly, this modulation was also reflected in the amplitude of sensorimotor cortex potentials just preceding the long-latency reflex. Together, these results support a transcortical pathway for the long-latency reflex and a central modulation of the reflex grip force response.
Lacquaniti, F. and Maioli, C., 1987. Anticipatory and reflex coactivation of antagonist muscles in catching. Brain research, 406 (1–2), 373–378.
Reflex and anticipatory co-activation of antagonist muscles is demonstrated to occur when human subjects catch a ball. Amplitude and time course of the electromyographic responses are strongly modulated by the presence of visual information. It is argued that these responses are centrally preset to stabilise the limb after ball impact.
Lacquaniti, F. and Maioli, C., 1989. The role of preparation in tuning anticipatory and reflex responses during catching. Journal of neuroscience, 9, 134–148.
The pattern of muscle responses associated with catching a ball in the presence of vision was investigated by independently varying the height of the drop and the mass of the ball. It was found that the anticipatory electromyographic responses comprised early and late components. The early components were produced at a roughly constant latency (about 130 ms) from the time of ball release. Their mean amplitude decreased with increasing height of fall. Late components represented the major build-up of muscle activity preceding the ball’s impact and were accompanied by limb flexion. Their onset time was roughly constant (about 100 ms) with respect to the time of impact (except in wrist extensors). This indicates that the timing of these responses was based on an accurate estimate of the instantaneous values of the time-to-contact (time remaining before impact). The mean amplitude of the late anticipatory responses increased linearly with the expected momentum of the ball at impact. The reflex responses evoked by the ball’s impact consisted in a short-latency co-activation of flexor and extensor muscles at the elbow and wrist joints. Their mean amplitude generally increased with the intensity of the perturbation both in the stretched muscles and in the shortening muscles. The authors argue that both the anticipatory and the reflex co-activation are centrally preset in preparation for catching and are instrumental for stabilising limb posture after impact.Amodel with linear, time-varying viscoelastic coefficients was used to assess the neural and mechanical contributions to the damping of limb oscillations induced by the ball’s impact. The model demonstrates that (1) anticipatory muscle stiffening and anticipatory flexion of the limb are synergistic in building up resistance of the hand to vertical displacement; and (2) the reflex co-activation produces a further increment of hand stiffness and viscosity which tends to offset the decrement which would result from the limb extension produced by the impact.
Laird, J.E., 2000. An exploration into computer games and computer-generated forces. The eighth conference on computer generated forces and behavior representation, Orlando, FL.
The artificial intelligence (AI) components of computer games often appear to be very complex, possibly having abilities beyond the state of the art in computer-generated forces (CGFs). The similarities and differences between AIs for computer games and CGFs are studied here. The goals of AIs and CGFs, their behavioural requirements, and the underlying resources available for developing and fielding them, are contrasted with an eye to how they impact the complexity of their behaviours. The conclusion is that CGFs are currently far ahead of game AIs, but that this may change soon. Computer games have advantages for doing certain types of research on complex, human-level behaviour (cf. Laird 2001 below). The design of the Soar Quakebot is based on TacAir-Soar, a real-time expert system that flies US military air missions in simulation, and that is used for training in the US Air Force. The Soar Quakebot incorporates complex tactics and the ability of the bot to anticipate the actions of its enemy.
Laird, J.E., 2001. It knows what you’re going to do: adding anticipation to a Quakebot. In: Proceedings of the fifth international conference on autonomous agents, Montreal, Quebec, Canada, 385–392.
The complexity of AI characters in computer games is continually improving; however, they still fall short of human players. In this paper, Laird describes an AI bot for the game Quake II that tries to incorporate some of the missing capabilities. This bot is distinguished by its ability to build its own map as it explores a level, use a wide variety of tactics based on its internal map, and in some cases, anticipate its opponent’s actions. The bot was developed in the Soar architecture and uses dynamic hierarchical task decomposition to organise it knowledge and actions. It also uses internal prediction based on its own tactics to anticipate its opponent’s actions. This paper describes the implementation, its strengths and weaknesses, and discusses future research.
Laird, J.E., 2001. Using a computer game to develop advanced AI. Computer, 34 (7), 70–75.
In computer games, designers can use artificial intelligence to control individual characters, provide strategic direction to character groups, dynamically change parameters to make the game appropriately challenging, or produce play-by-play commentary. Computer games offer an inexpensive, reliable and surprisingly accessible environment for conducting research in human-level AI design, often – as in the case of Quake II – with built-in AI interfaces. The author’s work with the game’s Quakebot demonstrated that researchers can successfully pursue serious study of autonomous AI agents within the context of computer games. This research directly applies to computer-generated forces, which require modelling realistic, entity-level behaviour. Studying the impact of changes in reaction time, tactics level and perceptual and motor skills on over-all Quake II game performance helped to model these behaviours. From its scoring method, which rewards the highest number of kills, it is obvious that Quake II epitomises violent computer games. The author does not, however, believe that the future of AI in games lies in creating ever more realistic arenas for violence. Thus, he is pursuing further research within the context of creating computer games that emphasise the drama that arises from social interactions between humans and computer characters.
van Lent, M., et al., 1999. Intelligent agents in computer games. In: Proceedings of the sixteenth national conference on artificial intelligence, Menlo Park, CA: AAAI Press, 929–930.
The Soar/Games project (van Lent and Laird 1999) at the University of Michigan Artificial Intelligence Lab developed an interface between Soar and the commercial computer games Quake II and Descent 3. Soar serves as an inference engine for the intelligent agent in the games. As computer games become more complex and consumers demand more sophisticated computer controlled opponents, game developers are required to place a greater emphasis on the artificial intelligence aspects of their games. The authors’ experience developing intelligent air combat agents for DARPA suggested a number of areas of AI research applicable to computer games. Research in areas such as intelligent agent architectures, knowledge representation, goal-directed behaviour and knowledge reusability are all directly relevant to improving the intelligent agents in computer games. The Soar/Games project has a number of goals from both the research and game development perspectives. From the research perspective, computer games provide domains for exploring topics such as machine learning, intelligent architectures and interface design. The Soar/Games project suggested new research problems relating to knowledge representation, agent navigation and human–computer interaction. From a game development perspective, the main goal of the Soar/Games project is to make games more fun by making the agents in games more intelligent. If done correctly, playing with or against these AI agents will more closely capture the challenge of playing online against actual persons. A flexible AI architecture, such as Soar, will also make the development of intelligent agents for games easier by providing a common inference engine and reusable knowledge base that can be easily applied to many different games.
Lindal, V., End point visualization. Available from: http://www.viclindal.ca/index.htm.
Developed by volleyball coach Vic Lindal, End Point Visualisation is believed to give a final push to move a game from mediocre to sensational. Every good athlete who has become a great athlete believes that success came, not because of physical attributes or skill but because of mental conditioning. This great programme, designed for success regardless of sport, may be a key to success.
Marrin, T. and Picard, R.W., 2002. The Conductor’s Jacket: a testbed for research on gestural and affective expression. Available from: http://web.media.mit.edu/marrin/CIM. htm.
The Conductor’s Jacket is a wearable physiological monitoring system that has been built into the clothing of an orchestral conductor; it was designed to provide a testbed for the study of emotional expression as it relates to musical performance. The sensors in the jacket were chosen because they have been shown to give strong indications of emotional state; they have been used before in different studies to capture physiological signals from the surface of the skin. The Conductor’s Jacket has recently been used to gather data during several orchestral rehearsals with a professional conductor in Boston. This paper presents the initial results, which support certain hypotheses about the ways human beings modulate their own physiology in order to communicate affective information. The data collected supports four major features in the standard conducting technique: (1) the left hand should be used to add emphasis and extra expressive information; (2) page turns are done in such a way as to purposefully not attract attention or convey musical information; (3) the amount of force used in performing a beat gesture indicates the volume and articulation with which that note should be played; and (4) a conductor’s breathing reflects important information about phrase lengths and interpretation. Some surprising results showed up, including several instances where the muscles went limp right before a major event, which suggests that the sudden absence of information has been encoded to signal a ‘heads-up’ to the players in anticipation of an important future event.
Mechsner, F., Kerzel, D., Knoblich, G. and Prinz, W., 2001. Perceptual basis of bimanual coordination. Nature, 414, 69–73.
Periodic bimanual movements are often the focus of studies of the basic organisational principles of human actions. In such movements, there is a typical spontaneous tendency towards mirror symmetry. Even involuntary slips from asymmetrical movement patterns into symmetry occur, but not vice versa. Traditionally, this phenomenon has been interpreted as a tendency towards co-activation of homologous muscles, probably originating in motoric neuronal structures. The authors provide evidence contrary to this widespread assumption. They show that for two prominent experimental models – bimanual finger oscillation and bimanual four-finger tapping – the symmetry bias is actually towards spatial, perceptual symmetry, without regard to the muscles involved. They suggest that spontaneous coordination phenomena of this kind are purely perceptual in nature. In the case of a bimanual circling model, their findings reveal that highly complex, even ‘impossible’ movements can easily be performed with only simple visual feedback. They suggest that voluntary movements are organised by way of a representation of the perceptual goals, whereas the corresponding motor activity, of sometimes high complexity, is spontaneously and flexibly tuned in.
Munduteguy, C. and Darses, F., 2007. Perception et anticipation du comportement d’autrui en situation simule´e de conduite automobile (Perception and anticipation of others’ behavior in a simulated car driving situation). Le travail humain, 70 (1), 1–32.
Anticipating the behaviour of other people is a central mechanism in managing our interactions with them, particularly in directing the development of the interaction. When the persons concerned are in continual close physical proximity, the interactants can anticipate another person’s behaviour not only by means of implicit and explicit verbal clues, but also through behavioural clues (gestures, eye movement, posture, etc.). The importance of these clues in interpreting interactions has been highlighted in many studies that are largely inspired by ethno-methodology. Here, the authors focus on an interaction situation that has the novelty of necessarily keeping the interactants at a distance. This forces them to manage a high level of interdependence with only reduced resources for communicating their intentions, action objectives and representation of the situation. The subject dealt with is car driving. A number of studies have examined the nature of interactions between drivers and their consequences for the overall driving system, particularly in the case of conflicts and accident situations. However, an analysis of the mechanisms brought into play to recognise the intentions of others has never been carried out, even though this is an indispensable component in anticipating the behaviour of drivers.
Myers, M.L., 2007. Anticipation of risks and benefits of emerging technologies: a prospective analysis method. Human and ecological risk assessment, 13 (5), 1042–1052.
Methods for identifying, evaluating and controlling hazards are well recognised, whereas a method for the anticipation of hazards has eluded the field of industrial hygiene. The Emerging Technologies Team at the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health developed a method for anticipating not only occupational hazards, but also potential benefits of emerging technologies for occupational safety and health. This method incorporates forecasting tools with a prospective assessment step into the risk assessment model, stresses research results as an iterative driver in the assessment, and depends on inherently safer design to eliminate or reduce hazards. An iterative process that involves the occupational safety and health professional as a team member in the development of emerging technologies is recommended.
Nadin, M., 2009. Anticipation and risk – from the inverse problem to reverse computation. In: M. Nadin, ed. Risk and decision analysis (special issue: Anticipation and risk assessment), 1 (2), 113–139.
Risk assessment is relevant only if it has predictive relevance. In this sense, the anticipatory perspective has yet to contribute to more adequate predictions. For purely physics-based phenomena, predictions are as good as the science describing such phenomena. For the dynamics of the living, the physics of the matter making up the living is only a partial description of their change over time. The space of possibilities is the missing component, complementary to physics and its associated predictions based on probabilistic methods. The inverse modelling problem, and moreover the reverse computation model guide anticipatory-based predictive methodologies. An experimental setting for the quantification of anticipation is advanced and structural measurement is suggested as a possible mathematics for anticipation-based risk assessment.
Netting, J., 2000. Tickling your fancy. NatureNews [online]. Available from: http://www. nature.com/news/2000/000830/full/news000831-5.html [Accessed 30 August]. ‘There is a ticklish spot that most people don’t know they have: their brains. The mere sight of wiggling fingers poised ready to strike sends some people into hysterics. The threat of a tickle feels like the real thing.’
Nickerson, J.V., 2009. Adversarial design games and the role of anticipation in sensor networks. In:M. Nadin, ed. Risk and decision analysis (special issue: Anticipation and risk assessment), 1 (2), 75–84.
Nickerson presents an information–science-based application intended to mitigate risks associated with enemy intrusions.
Roure, R., et al., 1998. Autonomic nervous system responses correlate with mental rehearsal in volleyball training. European journal of applied physiology and occupational physiology, 78 (2), 99–108.
The aim of this study was to objectively assess the processes of mental rehearsing (imagery) by measuring variations of the autonomic nervous system (or ANS responses) during an open-ended complex motor skill in two actual experiments (volleyball) and during mental rehearsing taking place between them. The ANS parameters (skin potential and resistance, skin temperature and heat clearance, instantaneous heart rate and respiratory frequency) were quantified by original techniques and indices. Results from a principal component analysis showed a strong correlation between the responses in actual tasks (pre- and post-test volleyball) and during mental imagery, since the same preferential variables appeared on the main axis in 87% of cases. Thus, the same autonomic channels seemed to be used during the actual activity and during the mental imagery of this activity. As far as phasic results were concerned, the main finding was a differing development of skill between imagining and non-imagining volleyball players. No clear difference was seen between pre- and post-tests in non-imaginers, except an increase in the median of the duration of the response observed in heat clearance. Mental rehearsing induced a specific pattern of autonomic response: decreased amplitude, shorter duration and negative skin potentials compared to the control group. As this pattern was associated with better performance in the tests, it can be suggested that in the case of open-ended motor activity, mental rehearsing may help in the construction of schema which can be reproduced, without thinking, in actual practice. Thus, a neural information process might develop in the central nervous system changing from a parallel into a serial treatment.
Rottiers, F., 2008. To anticipate color: a visual resistance phenomenon? International journal of computing anticipatory systems, 21, Liege: CHAOS, 162–173.
The purpose of this article is to explore the idea that colour as it appears for an observer (experiential colour) functions as a co-constitutive interface of the complex living system. In order to render this idea intelligible, a new kind of metaphysical perspective is needed. The author proposes a new metaphysical perspective that argues, from the viewpoint of a ‘contributing’ observer, for the necessity of the answer and the possibility of the question.This allows for the possibility (1) to put forward complexity as a necessary answer; (2) to claim a place for experiential sensoriality that functions as co-constitutive interfaces of the complex living system; and (3) to secure a placewhere the philosophical question, or any other question for that matter, can bestow an informative contribution to the answer ‘complexity’.
St. Amant, R. and Young, R.M., 2001. Artificial intelligence and interactive entertainment. Intelligence, 12 (2), Summer, 17–19.
For artificial intelligence researchers working in the context of computer games, research challenges are as complex and compelling as many real-world problem areas. Gaming environments offer unique interfaces and modes of use and an extensive existing base of potential users. The authors refer to Laird’s research (see Laird, above) as a foundation. They introduce some aspects of the application of AI research to interactive entertainment. Although intelligent techniques certainly apply to a wide range of computer games, here they focus on games that simulate or create highly interactive virtual environments – games in which one or more users control various aspects of the game’s world, either in discrete steps (e.g. turn-taking) or in continuous real-time modes.
Sternad, D., et al., 2001. Dynamics of a bouncing ball in human performance. Physical review E, 63 (1), 8 pp.
On the basis of a modified bouncing-ball model, the authors investigated whether human movements utilise principles of dynamic stability in their performance of a similar movement task. Stability analyses of the model provided predictions about conditions indicative of a dynamically stable period-one regime. In a series of experiments, human subjects bounced a ball rhythmically on a racket and displayed these conditions, supporting that they attuned to and exploited the dynamic stability properties of the task.
Stewart, K.J., 2005. Physical activity and aging. Annals of the New York academy of sciences, 1055, 193–206.
Most human beings experience peak physical performance in their late teens and begin a slow decline in their early 20s. This course is greatly affected by the activity levels undertaken by individuals in the years that follow. Many studies provide evidence that in developed nations such as the USA, a sedentary lifestyle contributes significantly to development of the major risk factors for age-related disease, prominent among them obesity, diabetes and hypertension. Conversely, numerous studies document the benefits of physical activity, and in particular structured exercise programmes, not only for reducing disease risk and improving physical performance, but also for enhancing substantially the quality of daily life. Aerobic and resistance training have complementary benefits, and can be undertaken at almost any age and physical condition, given appropriate medical clearance and supervision as warranted. Anticipation is implicit as one of the underlying attributes to be maintained.
Tang, T.Q., Huang, H.J., Wong, S.C. and Jiang, R., 2008. A car-following model with the anticipation effect of potential lane changing. Acta Mechanica Sinica, 24 (4), 399–407.
In this paper, a new car-following model is presented, taking into account the anticipation of potential lane changing by the leading vehicle. The stability condition of the model is obtained by using the linear stability theory. The modified Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) equation is constructed and solved, and three types of traffic flow in the headwaysensitivity space – stable, meta-stable, and unstable – are classified. Both the analytical and simulation results show that anxiety about lane changing does indeed have an influence on driving behaviour, and that a consideration of lane changing probability in the car-following model could stabilise traffic flows. The quantitative relationship between stability improvement and lane changing probability is also investigated.
Tsakalozos, K., Stoumpos, V., Saidis, K. and Delis, A., 2009. Adaptive disk scheduling with workload-dependent anticipation intervals. Journal of systems and software, 82 (2), 274–291.
Anticipatory scheduling (AS) of I/O requests has become a viable choice for block-device schedulers in open-source OS-kernels, as prior work has established its superiority over traditional disk-scheduling policies. An AS-scheduler selectively stalls the block-device right after servicing a request in hope that a new request for a nearby sector will be soon posted. This decision may introduce delays if the anticipated I/O does not arrive on time. In this paper, the authors build on the success of the AS and propose an approach that minimises the overhead of unsuccessful anticipations. The suggested approach, termed workload-dependent anticipation scheduling, determines the length of every anticipation period in an on-line fashion in order to reduce penalties by taking into account the evolving spatio-temporal characteristics of running processes as well as properties of the underlying computing system. The authors harvest the spatio-temporal features of individual processes and employ a system-wide process classification scheme that is recalibrated on the fly. The resulting classification enables the disk scheduler to make informed decisions and vary the anticipation interval accordingly, on a per-process basis.
Turrell, Y., 2000. Grip force adjustments in collisions. Thesis (PhD). University of Birmingham. Available from: http://en.scientificcommons.org/31735460.
During object manipulation, grip force applied normally to the surfaces of the object must produce friction to overcome the external load forces that threaten grasp stability. The studies presented in this thesis examined the characteristics of anticipatory and reactive grip force responses in the event of a collision between a hand-held object and a target object.
Turrell, Y., Giersch, A. and Danion J.-M., 2002. A deficit in the adjustment of grip force responses in schizophrenia. Neuroreport, 13 (12), 1537–1539.
Delusions of control in schizophreniamay be due to a deficit in the generation of an efference copy, used to distinguish between self-generated and externally imposed changes in the environment. This hypothesis was tested using a framework that differentiated automatic and controlled levels of motor behaviour. Subjects resisted collisions that were either self- or externally imposed. The grip to load force correlation (response accuracy) and the overall grip force level used (response efficiency) were measured. Controls improved both accuracy and efficiency of their grip force responses in self-compared to externally imposed collisions. Patients improved accuracy but not efficiency of motor response. There was no difference between patientswith andwithout delusions of control.These results refute the hypothesis of a perturbed efference copy in patients with delusions of control. The authors propose that schizophrenia globally preserves the automatic level, but affects the controlled, more voluntary level of motor behaviour.
Wing, A.M., Flanagan, J.R. and Richardson, J., 1997. Anticipatory postural adjustments in stance and grip. Experimental brain research, 116 (1), 122–130.
The reactive forces and torques associated with moving a hand-held object between two points are potentially destabilising, both for the object’s position in the hand and for body posture. Previous work has demonstrated that there are increases in grip force ahead of arm motion that contribute to object stability in the hand. Other studies have shown that early postural adjustments in the legs and trunk minimise the potential perturbing effects on body posture of rapid voluntary arm movement. This paper documents the concurrent evolution of grip force and postural adjustments in anticipation of dynamic and static loads. Subjects held a manipulandumin precision grasp between thumband index finger and pulled or pushed either a dynamic or a fixed load horizontally towards or away fromthe body.Aforce platemeasured ground reaction torques, and force transducers in the manipulandum measured the load (tangential) and grip (normal) forces acting on the thumb and finger. In all conditions, increases in grip force and ground reaction torque preceded any detectable rise in load force. Rates of change of grip force and ground reaction torquewere correlated.Moreover, grip force and ground reaction torque rates at the onset of load forcewere correlated. These results imply the operation of motor planning processes that include anticipation of the dynamic consequences of voluntary action.
Wing, A.M. and Lederman, S.J., 1998. Anticipating load torques produced by voluntary movements. Journal of experimental psychology. Human perception and performance, 24 (6), 1571–1581.
The stability of an object held between the finger and thumb depends on friction developed by grip force, normal to the contact surfaces in order to overcome tangential load force. Previous research has shown that in lifting an object, grip force rises with the increase in gravitational load force as the hand takes the weight and that in moving an object, grip force is adjusted to meet movement-induced inertial load force. Those results demonstrated the anticipatory nature of coordination of grip force with load force. Whether grip force anticipates load torque was studied in this research. When participants were constrained to use grasp points where the grasp axis was manifestly distant from object centre of mass, it was found that they made grip force adjustments in anticipation of load torques that tended to destabilise an object as a result of lifting or moving it. These adjustments imply use of information about object centre of mass in movement planning.
Witney, A.G., et al., 2004. The cutaneous contribution to adaptive precision grip. Trends in neurosciences, 27 (10), 637–643.
Only after injury, and perhaps prolonged exposure to cold that is sufficient to numb the fingers, do we suddenly appreciate the complex neural mechanisms that underlie our effortless dexterity in manipulating objects. The nervous system is capable of adapting grip forces to a wide range of object shapes, weights and frictional properties, and to provide optimal and secure handling in a variety of potentially perturbing environments. The dynamic interplay between sensory information and motor commands provides the basis for this flexibility. Recent studies supply somewhat unexpected evidence of the essential role played by cutaneous feedback in maintaining and acquiring predictive grip force control. These examples also offer new insights into the adaptive control of other voluntary movements.
Notes on contributor
Notes on contributor for this article can be found in the associated article, ‘Anticipation and dynamics: Rosen’s anticipation in the perspective of time’, this issue, pp. 3–33.

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